NCAA March Madness · 2026 · An Experiment

Model Madness

Four AI models. One bracket. Asked on March 19, 2026. Who called it?

Model Madness
Claude/ 120
ChatGPT/ 120
Gemini/ 120
Grok/ 120
Connecting…
Asked On
March 19, 2026 — Day 1 of the first round
Countdown
Models
Claude · ChatGPT · Gemini · Grok
Live Results Fetching from ESPN…

Standings

Real-time scores as the tournament plays out — picks were locked in on March 19

Tournament Progress

Round-by-round breakdown from ESPN

The Picks

Each AI was given the same prompt on March 19, 2026 — the day the first round tipped off

Bracket View

Visual bracket showing each AI's path to the championship

AI vs The Public

How do the AI picks compare to ESPN bracket challenge pick percentages?

Champion pick — AI vs public %
Source: ESPN Bracket Challenge
Pick agreement matrix

The Experiment

Same prompt. Same day. Four different answers. Here's what the data shows.

Bracket Accuracy

Before scoring picks, we checked: did each model even know the real tournament field?

On March 19, 2026 — the day Round of 64 games began — we asked each model for their full bracket predictions. Two models produced the actual 2026 tournament field. Two did not.

A+
Claude
64/64 teams correct
Perfect bracket structure on first attempt. Zero fabricated teams. Zero teams in wrong regions.
0 corrections needed
A-
Gemini
64/64 teams, format issues
All teams correct. Minor ambiguity in table format for some regional placements.
0 corrections needed
D
Grok
3 fabricated teams
Listed Marquette, Auburn, and Creighton — none are in the 2026 tournament. ~9 teams placed in wrong regions.
3 corrections needed
D
ChatGPT
33 fabricated teams
Generated a bracket from training data, not the real 2026 field. Duke (overall 1-seed) was listed as a 4-seed in the wrong region.
3 corrections needed
Key Finding
Two of four models could not produce the actual 2026 tournament field on the day games began. After multiple correction prompts, all brackets were fixed and are now scoreable. Full methodology documented in METHODOLOGY.md.
Made with ❤️ by Claude Code and donkitchen.com